Tento týden vystoupilo několik mluvčích Fedu, kteří vyjádřili různé názory na budoucí měnovou politiku, ale jejich společná obava z nejistoty ohledně cel potvrdila očekávání Wall Street, že dveře pro snižování sazeb v tomto roce se pravděpodobně zavírají.
„Tento týden se v médiích vyjádřila řada představitelů Fedu. Z jejich vyjádření vyplývá, že cla pravděpodobně vytvoří rizika pro obě strany mandátu Fedu. Správnou reakcí je počkat,“ napsali analytici Morgan Stanley a shrnuli tak konsensus před červnovým zasedáním FOMC.
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD looks fairly clear, albeit somewhat complex. There is no talk of canceling the upward segment of the trend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very non-standard shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.
In my opinion, the construction of the upward segment of the trend is not finished, and its targets may extend all the way up to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e appears complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect a new upward wave sequence to form. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3, or c. I had expected that within this wave the instrument would rise to the level of 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, this wave is taking on a more extended form, which is very positive, as in this case it may turn out to be impulsive—and along with it, the entire upward wave sequence.
The EUR/USD rate barely changed on Friday, with the total price range amounting to just 15 basis points by the opening of the U.S. session. Overall, I do not expect to see or hear anything interesting this week. Let me remind you that the only events this week were three U.S. reports, which left a contradictory aftertaste—much like the entire news backdrop in December.
While GDP volumes grew by as much as 4.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter (second estimate), industrial production once again lost momentum, and orders for durable goods declined. Let me also remind you that earlier, pivotal reports on inflation, unemployment, and the labor market were released, which are also difficult to count as positives for the dollar. Although payrolls in November came in slightly above market expectations, the October payroll figure set an anti-record for the past several years. The unemployment rate rose, while inflation declined. The latter could have been considered a positive factor for the U.S. currency if not for one "small" caveat—declining inflation sharply increases market dovish expectations for 2026. In other words, the faster inflation falls amid a weak labor market, the more rounds of rate cuts the Fed will carry out next year. There is no need to look at current analyst forecasts or the CME FedWatch tool—everything will depend solely on incoming economic data.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis conducted, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors weighing on the U.S. dollar in the long term. The targets of the current trend segment may extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The current upward wave sequence is beginning to gain momentum, and one would like to believe that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave sequence as part of the global wave 5. In this case, growth should be expected with targets near 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci levels.
On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is clearly visible. The wave labeling is not the most standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts, rather than rigidly tying analysis to every single wave. At present, the bullish structure raises no doubts.
RYCHLÉ ODKAZY
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