Monday, July 18 Traditionally, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty at the beginning of the week. Therefore, market participants are likely to digest Friday's statistics on the United States. And, given its nature, the market is likely to go into a sideways movement with relatively wide boundaries. Tuesday, July 19 On Tuesday, data on the labor market in the UK are published, but they are unlikely to have an impact on the dynamics of the market, since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. But the data on inflation in the eurozone will certainly lead to a downward movement of the European currency, which will bring it back to parity with the US dollar. Inflation is expected to accelerate from 8.1% to 8.6%. Therefore, it can be concluded that it is too early to expect a reduction in inflationary pressure. Moreover, the European Central Bank is likely to raise the refinancing rate rather slowly, which is not enough to slow down the growth rate of consumer prices. Wednesday, July 20 On Wednesday, a similar situation will occur with the pound, as inflation in the UK should accelerate from 9.1% to 9.5%. And this is despite the fact that the Bank of England has long started raising the refinancing rate. As a result, the pound may catch up with the euro on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar will also lose its positions in the middle of the week. And also because of rising inflation: the growth rate of consumer prices in Canada, according to the most conservative estimates, should accelerate from 7.7% to 8.0%. According to some forecasts, the growth may amount to 8.3%. Thursday, July 21 The main event of the week will be the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank on Thursday. All market participants expect that the refinancing rate will be increased from 0.00% to 0.25%. And although this is unlikely to help with inflation, the very fact of the first increase in interest rates in many years will give the single European currency an excellent boost to growth. Moreover, the euro will pull other currencies along with it, so the US dollar will be in a non-winning position on Thursday. Moreover, data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will remain ignored, as they are published at about the same time as the ECB meeting. Friday, July 22 On Friday, preliminary data on business activity indices in many countries will be published, but they will not affect the mood of market participants in any way. The fact is that the same result is expected everywhere – all indices will show a decline. But inflation in Japan may accelerate from 2.5% to 2.6%, which will help strengthen the yen. After all, the Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates since 2007, and inflation is already above the target level. So the yen will grow just on expectations of an imminent increase in the refinancing rate. The pound sterling will also grow slightly at the end of the week, due to a slowdown in the decline in retail sales from -4.7% to -4.4%. The same picture is approximate with the Canadian dollar, since the growth rate of retail sales in Canada should accelerate from 9.2% to 10.0%.
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