Monday, July 25 The macroeconomic calendar on Monday is absolutely empty, but this is even for the best. The fact is that on Wednesday the main event of the week will take place – a meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC) of the USA. And investors will ignore any macroeconomic data published before the Fed meeting and the announcement of the rate decision. Tuesday, July 26 A similar situation will be observed on Tuesday. And although data on the CB consumer confidence index will be released on this day, as well as statistics on housing prices in the United States, they will remain unnoticed by the market. Wednesday, July 27 Wednesday will begin with the publication of inflation data in Australia: it should accelerate from 5.1% to 6.2%. Thus, we are talking about a further acceleration of inflation and subsequent destructive consequences for the Australian economy, so the Australian dollar will be under pressure on Wednesday. The main event not only of the day, but of the whole week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. With a high probability, the regulator will raise the refinancing rate by 75 basis points, from 1.75% to 2.50%. The subsequent comments of the head of the American regulator will be of great interest. If Jerome Powell confirms the Fed's intentions to raise the rate by at least 50 bps at the next meeting, the euro will immediately rush towards parity with the dollar, pulling other currencies along with it. Thursday, July 28 On Thursday, the first estimate of US GDP for the second quarter will be of interest. It is expected that it should not show a decline, however, a sharp slowdown in economic growth is likely to be recorded. This will somewhat improve the situation and lead to a slight weakening of the dollar. However, this will not last long, as the ever-increasing disparity of interest rates will steadily contribute to the strengthening of the US currency. Friday, July 29 The end of the week will be an extremely busy day, and everything will start with retail sales in Japan, the growth rate of which may slow down from 3.6% to 3.0%. The decline in consumer activity in the country will inevitably weaken the position of the Japanese yen. Then important data on the eurozone are published. The first estimate of GDP for the second quarter will be of the greatest interest, the growth rate of which may slow down from 5.4% to 2.8%. This will be followed by preliminary data on inflation, which should show its acceleration from 8.6% to 9.0%. Thus, taking into account such weak data, the single European currency may return to parity with the dollar. And maybe even go lower.
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