Monday, December 12 The upcoming week will be incredibly busy and extremely important. In addition to the fact that we are waiting for a lot of interesting publications, this week is actually the last working week for the financial markets this year. However, Monday is traditionally not rich in news publications. Only statistics on industrial production in the UK can attract attention: the rate of decline should slow down from -3.1% to -2.7%. However, this will have virtually no effect on the British currency, as investors prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the meetings of the boards of the main central banks. Tuesday, December 13 But even if the pound sterling is able to strengthen its position somewhat on Monday, it will come back on Tuesday. The reason for the weakening will be the data on the unemployment rate – it is expected to increase from 3.6% to 3.7%. After the opening of the US trading session, all investors' attention will be focused on the US inflation data, which will begin to make serious adjustments to the market dynamics. Moreover, inflation should slow down from 7.7% to 7.6%. And given the fact that the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be announced on Wednesday, a decrease in inflation will lead to rumors and speculation that the American regulator may already reduce the rate of interest rate growth. And this, of course, will lead to a weakening of the dollar. Wednesday, December 14 The main event of the whole week will be a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. However, before that, it is worth paying attention to the inflation data in the UK. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 11.1% to 11.0%. And since these changes are purely symbolic, they will not affect the dynamics of the pound. A little later, data on industrial production in the eurozone will be published, the growth rate of which may slow down from 4.9% to 3.7%, which will lead to some weakening of the single European currency. On Wednesday evening, all investors' attention will be focused exclusively on the results of the US Federal Reserve Board meeting. It is expected that the regulator will still raise the refinancing rate by only 50 basis points, thereby starting to reduce the growth rate of interest rates this year. If this forecast justifies itself, then the dollar will again be under quite strong pressure. However, there is another option that the refinancing rate will be increased by 75 basis points. And in this case, we are waiting for a fairly long strengthening of the US currency. Thursday, December 15 Thursday will begin with the publication of data on the labor market in Australia, where the unemployment rate may fall from 3.4% to 3.3%. However, this statistic may be ignored, since the market at this time will still digest the results of the Fed meeting, and then immediately begin to prepare for the meeting of the board of the European Central Bank. Analysts predict that the ECB, as well as the US Federal Reserve, will raise the rate by 50 bps. In this case, the single European currency will noticeably weaken and thereby neutralize the negative consequences for the dollar that will be caused by a similar-scale increase in the refinancing rate by the Federal Reserve System. If the ECB raises the rate by 75 bps, then regardless of the decision of the American regulator, the euro will actively grow. In the evening, data on retail sales and industrial production in the United States will be released. Experts' forecasts are disappointing: the growth rate of retail sales may slow down from 8.3% to 7.9%, and industrial production from 3.3% to 2.7%. Friday, December 16 Friday will not give market participants a break, because even the end of the week will be extremely busy with publications. At first, preliminary estimates of business activity indices are published almost everywhere, and if in Europe with the UK, all indicators are expected to decrease without exception, then in the USA, on the contrary, they should grow. That will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. The growth of indices is still expected in Japan, but the macroeconomic statistics of the Country of the Rising Sun traditionally have an extremely weak impact. At the same time, the potential growth of the dollar will be restrained by retail sales in the UK, the rate of decline of which should slow down from -6.1% to -5.3%. But the data on inflation in Europe will definitely be ignored, as the final data are published, which should only confirm the preliminary estimate that showed its decline from 10.6% to 10.0%.
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