Monday, June 19 The new trading week will not be as busy as the previous one, which was filled with a series of meetings of the boards of key central banks. Nevertheless, a lot of quite interesting and significant data is published. For example, the producer price index for Canada is published on Monday. The rate of decline in prices should accelerate from -3.5% to -4.0%. This suggests that deflationary processes are intensifying in the country, which do not promise anything good. And it is quite obvious that the Canadian dollar will be under pressure. Tuesday, June 20 But Tuesday will not be rich in publications. Data on industrial production in Japan will not cause any interest, as the final data are published. They should coincide with the preliminary estimates already taken into account by the market. Wednesday, June 21 On Wednesday, all the attention of market participants will be focused on inflation in the UK. It is expected that the growth rate of consumer prices will slow down from 8.7% to 8.4%, which will have a significant impact on the pound on the eve of the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England. Most likely, the British regulator will raise the refinancing rate this time, but it is much more important what it will do next. Statements may be made about a temporary pause and the intention to assess the impact of recent interest rate hikes. So a slowdown in inflation will certainly lead to a weakening of the pound. The Canadian dollar will also lose its positions. The reason for this will be retail sales, the growth rate of which should slow down from 2.4% to 2.0%. Thursday, June 22 The main event of the week will be the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which will be held on Thursday. The markets are confident that the refinancing rate will be raised from 4.50% to 4.75%. But as noted above, the following comments are much more important. A gradual slowdown in inflation may well lead to the Bank of England taking a kind of pause, which in itself will negatively affect the pound. Friday, June 23 But at the end of the week, the pound will be able to recoup some of its losses due to retail sales, the rate of decline of which should slow down from -3.0% to 2.4%. But the yen will lose its position, as inflation in Japan is likely to decrease from 3.5% to 3.2%, which in principle excludes the possibility of an early change in the approach of the Bank of Japan to its monetary policy, which consists in negative interest rates.
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