Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the US Federal Reserve may reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points four times in a row, which will lead to its reduction to the level of 3.625% by May 2025. This forecast reflects a slowdown in economic growth, a weakening labor market and ongoing inflationary pressures. The bank's experts emphasize that the decrease in the flow of migrants and the increase in tariffs have a negative impact on GDP growth and increase inflation risks. Although inflation is expected to slow down by early 2025, the consumer price index (CPI) will remain above the Fed's 2% target until 2026. According to Morgan Stanley forecasts, core PCE inflation will be 2.8% in 2024, decrease to 2.5% in 2025 and reach 2.4% in 2026. Economic growth is also expected to slow down: GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2024, by 1.9% in 2025 and by just 1.3% in 2026. Morgan Stanley representatives note that consumer activity is declining due to a slowdown in income growth and increased tariffs, which will restrain economic activity. As a result, unemployment is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.5% by the end of 2026. The bank expects the Fed to suspend rate cuts in the second half of 2026 amid a slowdown in economic growth. The Quantitative Tightening Program (QT) is scheduled to be completed by early 2025. Morgan Stanley also identifies three possible scenarios for the development of the situation: «Hard landing» – excessive tightening of the Fed's policy will lead to a decrease in GDP in 2025. «Re-acceleration» – lowering rates can stimulate economic growth. «Chinese reflation» is a slight increase in inflation in the United States due to the rising cost of imported goods from China.
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