Monday, December 13 Traditionally, the macroeconomic calendar on Monday is completely empty. However, this is not bad, since the lack of news will allow market participants to calmly comprehend the US inflation data published on Friday. According to the latest statistics of the US Ministry of Labor, annual inflation accelerated to 6.8% in November, which was the highest value in the last 39 years. Tuesday, December 14 Tuesday will begin with a weakening of the Japanese yen, as the rate of decline in industrial production in the Land of the Rising Sun should accelerate from -2.3% to -4.7%. But the British pound, on the contrary, will be able to strengthen significantly. The thing is that the unemployment rate in the UK may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. The single European currency will follow the example of the yen on Tuesday and will also decline due to a slowdown in industrial production (from 5.2% to 2.9%). In the evening, you should pay attention to the data on the producer price index in the United States in November. The index should grow from 8.6% to 9.2%, which indicates a further increase in inflation. Wednesday, December 15 The day will begin with the publication of data on inflation in the UK, where it should rise from 4.2% to 5.0%. And although the Bank of England has already announced the timing of an increase in the refinancing rate, until then, rising inflation will continue to put pressure on the pound sterling. The situation is even worse for the Canadian dollar, as inflation in Canada may rise from 4.7% to 4.9%. At the same time, the Bank of Canada has so far refused to take any measures to curb price growth. However, all these data pale against the background of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The US regulator needs to analyze the recent increase in inflation and present the markets with a plan for further monetary rhetoric. In addition, just before the meeting, retail sales data will be published, the growth rate of which may slow down from 16.3% to 15.9%, which will put some pressure on the dollar. Thursday, December 16 On Thursday, preliminary data on business activity indices in many countries will be published. It will all start with Australia, where some growth is expected. In addition, the unemployment rate in the country should decrease from 5.2% to 4.9%. The growth of business activity will also be observed in Japan. However, the scale of growth is so modest that it will not have any impact on the dynamics of the yen. In the eurozone, on the contrary, a decline in all business activity indices without exception is expected, which will negatively affect the euro exchange rate. A similar situation is expected in the UK. So the pound will also be under pressure. In the United States, the growth of all business activity indices without exception is projected, as well as a further reduction in the total number of applications for unemployment benefits. But the main events of Thursday will be the meetings of central banks. It will all start with a meeting of the Bank of England, the results of which are unlikely to bring anything new. According to the results of the last meeting, the British regulator clearly outlined its plans for the next two years, and the probability of any changes is zero. Then the results of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank will be announced. Market participants do not expect any changes from the ECB, as representatives of the regulator have hinted several times over the past week that no shifts in monetary policy are planned yet. Friday, December 17 Friday opens the meeting of the Board of the Bank of Japan, the results of which will be exactly the same as in the case of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Therefore, this event will pass unnoticed for the markets. At the same time, attention should be paid to the publication of data on retail sales in the UK, the rate of decline of which should slow down from -1.3% to -0.3%. This growth in consumer activity will support the pound. But it will be short-lived, as already in the middle of the day the entire market will be under pressure due to inflation in the eurozone, which may rise from 4.1% to 4.9%. And against the background of the ECB's complete inaction, the growth of consumer prices is an exceptionally negative factor. And because of its scale, the single European currency will pull down all other currencies.
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