Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility, mostly sideways, on Thursday. Yesterday morning, we warned that such movements were to be expected, as there were no scheduled macroeconomic or fundamental events on Thursday. Only in the morning did a consumer confidence report come out in Germany, but it held almost no significance for traders, as it coincided with forecasted values. Thus, the formation of an upward trend on the hourly timeframe continues, but, as we can see, the European currency cannot currently display growth in the manner the dollar has shown in recent months, that is, rising out of nowhere. Therefore, the movements of the pair now depend on events and reports.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, exactly one trading signal was generated. At the beginning of the American trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1571-1.1584 area but rose only about 10 pips. Once again, we remind you that if market volatility is low, it does not matter what levels are available to traders or what signals are formed. This morning, the pair is again near the 1.1571-1.1584 area, so another bounce may occur.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has begun another attempt at rising. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar; thus, the pair can still show declines only on technical grounds—the flat on the daily timeframe remains relevant. However, we expect its completion and a renewal of the upward trend of 2025. Volatility in the market remains low.

On Friday, novice traders can again trade from the area of 1.1571-1.1584. A price consolidation above this area will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. A new bounce from this area will allow for opening longs once again. A price consolidation below this area will make short positions relevant with a target of 1.1531.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the Eurozone or the US, but Germany will have four interesting reports. Germany is just one country in the Eurozone, but it is the "locomotive" of the European economy. Therefore, the market reaction to inflation, retail sales, and the unemployment level may follow.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.