Most analysts and economists believe that the Bank of England will raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on August 3, setting it at 5.25% per annum. This opinion is expressed in the light of the ongoing struggle with high inflation. Some experts also do not rule out the possibility of a more significant rate hike – by 50 basis points at once. In June, 7 out of 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted for such a decision. The British central bank has been raising rates for the past 13 meetings, and now they are at their highest since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the central bank as a whole will raise the rate to a peak of 5.75%, after which the decline will begin in the second quarter of 2024. At the same time, there is a risk of a later start of declines. The main problem for the Bank of England remains high inflation, which slowed to 7.9% in annual terms in June from 8.7% in May. Despite the local slowdown, the indicator is still four times higher than the target value and is the highest among the world's leading economies. However, an increase in rates may increase the pressure on Britons paying off mortgages. About 2.2 million Britons are paying off mortgages with floating rates, which are rising following the Central Bank's key rate. Moreover, tightening monetary policy could trigger a recession and create the threat of losing tens of thousands of jobs.
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