Experts assess the risks of a global recession due to Trump's tariffs

US President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose increased import duties could trigger a global trade war, which in turn threatens a global recession. Economists warn about this, noting, however, that such a scenario is not yet considered the main one.

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The global economy continues to experience a slowdown in growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, while global GDP grew by 3.6% in 2022, this figure dropped to 3.3% in 2023, and only 3.2% is expected in 2024.

At the same time, Trump is actively promoting the idea of increasing import duties, especially in relation to China. Among his proposals are additional tariffs of 10% on Chinese goods, and earlier he announced the possibility of duties of 60-100%. In addition, Trump mentioned the imposition of 10% tariffs on imports from other countries and separate duties of 25% for Mexico and Canada.

Although such measures may increase tensions in global trade, experts emphasize that a global recession as a result of trade conflicts remains only one of the possible scenarios, but not the main one.