Trump's threats have so far had little effect on Russia's oil exports

Shipments of Russian oil by sea decreased slightly for the third week, while remaining within the annual range. The threat of new tariffs has little effect on export volumes ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin scheduled for Friday.

The four–week average supply volume for the period up to August 10 was 3.11 million barrels per day, 3% less than the revised 3.21 million barrels per day a week earlier. At the same time, the seven-day figures showed an increase.

Some Indian refineries switched to purchases from alternative suppliers after the US imposed an additional 25% duty on oil exports from India. However, according to analysts, the real impact on Russian supplies will become noticeable only in a few weeks. It is possible to cancel spot purchases with October shipment, but the companies are waiting for official government clarifications. Even with such shipments loaded, oil can be sent to sea in the hope of mitigation measures before arriving in India.

The new duties are due to take effect on August 27, but may be waived. Trump also allowed the introduction of additional tariffs for China, but White House trade adviser Peter Navarro assessed the likelihood of this step as low. The market does not expect serious disruptions in Russian oil exports yet.