China's trade balance surplus increased to $1.2 trillion for 2025. For comparison, over the past 10 years, the US trade balance has never been positive, even for a single month. Under Trump, the US trade deficit has indeed narrowed, but will it ever become positive? At the moment, the US trade balance is at levels seen in 2016–2018. In that period, America imported roughly $25–50 billion more in goods each month than it exported. Then the balance began to steadily decline, and only Trump's tariffs and trade deals caused a slight stabilization. However, this review is not about US trade but about China's trade.
Beijing announced a record positive trade balance, thanks to a 5.5% increase in exports in 2025. It turns out that Trump's attempts to limit China's cash inflows actually played into China's hands. Beijing has shown that its goods are in demand worldwide, and Trump's tariffs and sanctions will not stop it. The situation is indeed ironic. Trump wanted to level the trade balance between China and the US by imposing tariffs and then signing a trade deal, but China continues to sell more each year. The economy grows, and producers in other countries increasingly become uncompetitive. The threat hangs not only over American manufacturers but also European ones. Experts believe that China's export-oriented economy is a threat to both China and the world. But while experts express concern, Beijing earns hundreds of billions of dollars.
The European economy has been stagnant for many years, especially Germany's. Growth rates are minimal or absent. China surpasses the European Union in producing virtually any goods, manufacturing them at a lower cost and with acceptable quality. I previously said that 10 or 20 years ago, Chinese goods elicited only laughter from many consumers. But not now. Even China's automotive industry is rapidly gaining consumers' trust worldwide. Today, owning a Chinese electric car no longer implies you cannot afford an American, European, or Japanese car. Owning a "Chinese" is now a conscious consumer choice based on optimal price/quality. While Europe or America imposes tariffs, raises taxes, and makes domestic goods less attractive even to their own consumers, China continues to delight the world with democratically priced products and steadily improving quality.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policy and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US currency. Targets of the current trend segment may extend to the 25-figure range. The current upward wave sequence appears to be nearing completion, so a near-term decline is expected. The trend segment that began on November 5 may still take a five-wave form, but for now, it is, in any case, a corrective wave.
The wave picture of GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of wave 4 appears complete, as does wave 4 as a whole. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets near 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its development, so in the near future, a downward wave or a set of waves may form.
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