Eight months of conflict continue in the Middle East, and that has become the main reason for the sharp rise in energy prices. Now the whole world is in an "energy coma," burning through remaining oil and gas reserves, dreading the onset of winter and praying for an end to the Iran–US conflict and an energy truce between Ukraine and Russia. Unfortunately, there are expectations, hypotheses, and hopes—and then there is harsh reality.

Donald Trump is a major cause of high global prices for oil, diesel, fuel, and gas. High energy prices also hurt him personally, because the Republicans' chances in elections are visibly shrinking. The US president is doing everything he can in the circumstances: promising daily to end the Iran conflict "soon," announcing an "energy truce" between Kyiv and Moscow (which neither Kyiv nor Moscow have confirmed), promising to lower diesel prices by importing from Russia, pledging $5,000 to each American if the Republicans win, and openly pleading for election support to avoid impeachment. At this point, Mr. Trump may even cry in public to win sympathy and a few extra votes for Republicans.

Eight months into the Iran conflict, it turns out the White House leader has dug himself many holes. Trump has lowered Republican ratings, pushed up diesel prices, fueled inflation, failed to solve any Middle East issues, provoked a global energy crisis, exposed weaknesses in the US military and arms shortages, and cast America as the aggressor. Yesterday, Trump said that eliminating Iranian leaders at the start of the campaign may have been a mistake, because now it is extremely hard to know who to negotiate with. He admitted he does not understand who should be the US counterpart in Tehran, since the obvious leaders have been killed.

Trump complained that no one in Iran now wants to be president, and in any case the Iranian president is not the supreme commander. Formally the leadership role is occupied by the son of the slain Ali Khamenei. But Mojtaba Khamenei gives almost no comments, does not deliver speeches, does not clarify Iran's position in the confrontation with the US, and largely keeps out of view, afraid of assassination attempts from Washington. Applause for Mr. Trump! Killing senior officials and then not knowing whom to negotiate with clearly deserves a prize.

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EUR/USD analysis. October 14. Inflation in focus

Wave analysis for EUR/USD

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective trend segment A-B-C-D-E. If that assumption holds, declines should continue toward targets below the low of wave C—1.1325. I treated this scenario as an alternative; if not for the Fed meeting, it would have remained a reserve case. But the Fed surprised markets and left no option but a new wave of dollar buying. Purchases have continued for several weeks despite the absence of fresh supporting factors for the dollar. I would not open shorts in such a news environment and would instead prepare for a reversal.

Wave analysis for GBP/USD

The wave structure for GBP/USD has become fairly clear but could grow more complex. Charts show a distinct A-B-C corrective structure, which after the Fed meeting could morph into A-B-C-D-E. If that assumption holds, the pound will continue to decline toward targets below the 1.31 area near the low of wave C. However, completion of a similar structure in the euro could trigger the pound's structure to finish at any stage.

Core principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident about market conditions, it is better not to enter.

3) There is never 100% certainty about direction; do not forget protective stop-loss orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.