The price test at 159.91 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 160.30.
Rising energy prices and the risk of further inflationary pressures have led to another decline in the yen against the US dollar. This trend, which has been gaining momentum since the beginning of the year, presents new challenges for the Japanese economy. The country's reliance on energy imports makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks, while internal factors, such as the Bank of Japan's low interest rates, continue to exert pressure on the national currency.
Today, during Asian trading, the yen has rebounded from its lowest level since July 2024 amid warnings indicating Japan's readiness for potential interventions to support the currency. The Japanese currency strengthened, falling below the closely watched 160 yen level against the dollar, after the country's top currency official said decisive measures may be needed if the situation continues. The gain continued after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that currency fluctuations have a significant impact on the economy and prices.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 159.79 (green line on the chart), targeting a move towards 160.00 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.00, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.67 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 159.79 and 160.00.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.67 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.37, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.79 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 159.67 and 159.37.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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