On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday after rebounding from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3596, and this morning it consolidated below the support level of 1.3513–1.3539. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the next support level at 1.3428–1.3437. A consolidation above the 1.3513–1.3539 level would again favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 1.3596 level.

The wave structure has shifted to a "bullish" one. The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete control of the market for two months, but then the geopolitical background began to improve, giving bulls more confidence. Now everything will depend on the success of new negotiations between Iran and the United States.

The news background on Thursday had no impact on trading, although GDP and industrial production reports in the UK gave bulls an opportunity to continue their advance. Both reports came in stronger than market expectations. However, traders had already turned toward a correction, as the factor of a ceasefire between Iran and the US had been priced in for about a week and a half, and now new data is needed: either confirmation of the ceasefire for at least another two weeks, or a breakdown in negotiations and renewed escalation. Therefore, the current decline should not be viewed as a resumption of a "bearish" trend. Most likely, a corrective pullback has begun, preceded by a graphical sell signal. No major economic news is expected this week, so the market will focus solely on negotiations in Pakistan through the end of the week. Of course, it is impossible to predict how they will end, but it is reasonable to assume that several more rounds will be needed to reach a consensus. The issue of Iran's nuclear energy program remains key, and it is still unclear how the parties can reach common ground on it.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls have finally gone on the offensive. After a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3540. However, a "bullish" divergence is now emerging on the same indicator, which may trigger a reversal back in favor of the pound. In that case, the growth process could resume toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3664.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions fell by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 47,000 vs. 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical backdrop.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while the bullish trend was still intact, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver behind the strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling positions were considered today after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. The first target has been reached. Buying positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3513–1.3539 level, with targets at 1.3596 and 1.3611–1.3620.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.