The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% at the May meeting. This step is connected with the need to take into account the decrease in inflation against the background of the stability of the labor market, as well as increased uncertainty in the field of trade policy. According to the results of the first quarter of this year, the US economy showed a decrease: GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year. This decrease was mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, as companies and consumers rushed to restock ahead of the possible imposition of higher tariffs. Despite the fact that inflation indicators, including CPI and PCE, show a weakening of price pressures, and employment remains at a high level, some market participants expect signs of an economic slowdown in the coming months. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's actions and its strategy for the rest of the year. However, officials are likely to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on incoming data to assess the full impact of the new trade measures proposed by the Trump administration.
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