Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1685 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 7 points.

It is evident that statistical data on retail sales and producer prices in the eurozone maintained demand for the euro. If, in the second half of the day, Trump does not change his mind about making peace with Iran, another upward wave in EUR/USD can be expected.

The release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will also be in focus. Traders traditionally expect this document to provide detailed insight into the reasoning and arguments used by FOMC members when making monetary policy decisions. Any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments will be of particular interest. Alongside the minutes, speeches by Christopher Waller and Mary Daly will also be significant, as they are likely to comment on Trump's decision not to bomb Iran and instead attempt to reach peace. A comparative analysis of their rhetoric with the information in the minutes will help market participants form a more complete picture of the likely direction of Fed policy in the near term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1703 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1747. At 1.1747, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Further growth of the euro can be expected within a strong uptrend.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1677 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1703 and 1.1747 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1677 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1642, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1703 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1677 and 1.1642 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.