Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1770 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair stopped just one step short of the target level of 1.1801.

Investors continue to place hopes on easing tensions in the Middle East, which could contribute to stabilizing oil prices and reducing geopolitical risks. Such a scenario creates conditions for accelerating growth in the European economy and strengthening the euro.

Today, particular attention will be focused on the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index and its core version, which excludes food and energy components. These PPI data are expected to provide valuable insight into inflationary processes in the U.S. manufacturing sector following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices.

In addition to statistical data, the U.S. trading session will include speeches from Federal Reserve representatives. Statements by FOMC members Austan D. Goolsbee and Michael S. Barr will be closely analyzed for comments on the current economic situation and the outlook for monetary policy. Markets are expected to respond with increased volatility. It is important to note that any hints of monetary tightening may put downward pressure on risk assets, while a more dovish tone could trigger growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro upon reaching the level of 1.1802 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1841. At 1.1841, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Growth in the euro today should only be expected after very weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1775 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1802 and 1.1841 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1775 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1742, where I intend to exit the market and consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1802 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1775 and 1.1742 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – expected Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.