Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3528 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

As data showed, consumer prices in the United Kingdom rose notably in March of this year, increasing by 0.7%. This inflation spike exceeded expectations amid a sharp rise in energy prices. This dynamic indicates an acceleration of inflationary processes compared to previous periods due to the Middle East conflict, which did not go unnoticed by forex market participants and led to a strengthening of the pound. However, this rise was not particularly strong, as market participants are likely waiting for additional information and statements from central bank officials to form a clearer view of future trends.

During the U.S. trading session, there are no important economic data releases, so all market attention remains focused on events in the Middle East and the prospects of a truce between the United States and Iran. Despite cautious optimism, attempts to stabilize the situation in the region have not yet led to a significant reduction in risks. Traders are likely adopting a wait-and-see approach, analyzing long-term prospects under current geopolitical uncertainty. Nevertheless, any information indicating either an escalation of the conflict or, conversely, its near-term resolution could trigger noticeable moves in the currency market.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3531 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3559 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3559, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). The pound may rise today within the bullish trend.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3513, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3551 and 1.3559 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3513 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3476, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Pressure on the pound may return today if the U.S. and Iran maintain a hard stance.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3531, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3513 and 1.3476 can then be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — estimated Take Profit level or manual profit-taking level, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, from the outset, a losing intraday strategy.