Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1695 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. A second test of 1.1695 triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the euro, resulting in a modest decline of about 10 points.

In the first half of the day, the euro showed a slight weakening. However, overall, the market remained relatively stable due to a lack of strong catalysts. The absence of significant macroeconomic data from the eurozone gave market participants little basis for making well-informed decisions.

In the near term, several important economic reports are expected that could significantly influence market sentiment. These include the ISM Services PMI, data on job openings and employment changes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. new home sales figures. All of these are considered key barometers of the health of the U.S. economy.

The ISM Services PMI is traditionally viewed as a leading indicator of future trends. A reading above 50 signals expansion in business activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Data on job openings and labor turnover from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides valuable insight into labor market conditions, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors.

New home sales are also an important indicator of consumer confidence and the health of the construction sector, serving as a signal of overall economic well-being.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1:

Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1701 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1734. At 1.1734, I plan to exit the market and also consider opening short positions, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Growth in the euro today is only likely in the event of weak U.S. data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1682 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1701 and 1.1734 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1682 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1646, where I intend to exit the market and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1701 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. A decline toward 1.1682 and 1.1646 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line: entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator: when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market during the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.