Monday, January 17 The week will start again quite quietly and calmly, and it's not even that the economic calendar is practically empty. Today is a day off in the United States due to the celebration of Martin Luther King Day, and recently the main activity in the market begins, as a rule, with the opening of the American session. Only data from China can be of interest. The pace of economic growth in 2021, against the background of the successful recovery of the country from the negative impact of the pandemic, was the highest in the last 10 years, amounting to 8.1%. China's industrial production grew by 9.6%. Tuesday, January 18 Tuesday will begin with the results of the meeting of the Board of the Bank of Japan, which are likely to put pressure on the Japanese yen. Market participants are confident that the regulator will leave everything unchanged and will not even hint at the possibility of raising the refinancing rate in the foreseeable future. And against the background of the US Federal Reserve's plans to tighten monetary policy, this rhetoric of the Japanese Central Bank will look extremely weak. Also on Tuesday, you should pay attention to the statistics block from the UK. In particular, data on the average wage level, as well as on employment and unemployment will be published. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged. Wednesday, January 19 But on Wednesday, the British pound will be under some pressure due to the expected increase in inflation from 5.1% to 5.2%. And in the current conditions, any increase in inflation is a negative factor. The situation is similar in Canada. Inflation in the country should rise from 4.7% to 4.8%. And the difference with Britain is that the Bank of Canada is not taking any action yet and is apparently waiting until inflation rises above 5.0%. And until then, the growth of inflation will have a destructive effect, so the Canadian dollar should also be under noticeable pressure. Germany will also present data on inflation in December on Wednesday, the indicator is expected to remain at 5.3%. Thursday, January 20 The main event of Thursday will be the publication of inflation data in the eurozone. However, this event will remain completely unnoticed, since these statistics should coincide with the preliminary estimate, which showed an increase in inflation from 4.9% to 5.0%. And these data have already been taken into account by the market. The United States will provide statistics on applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts' forecasts do not inspire optimism: the number of initial appeals should increase by 2 thousand, and repeated ones - by another 91 thousand. In other words, on Thursday there are all prerequisites for the weakening of the US currency. Friday, January 21 Friday will be the busiest day of the week. First, data on inflation in Japan will be published, where it should accelerate from 0.6% to 0.7%. And given the low level of inflation in the land of the Rising Sun, such growth is rather a boon, which can lead to a rise in the yen. The pound will be under pressure due to a slowdown in retail sales growth from 4.7% to 3.0%. Such a sharp decline in consumer activity in Britain, coupled with recent data on industrial production, indicates a sharp slowdown in the British economy. Which has not yet recovered from the consequences of 2020. The situation is slightly better in Canada, where the growth rate of retail sales may slow down from 5.3% to 4.9%. Although the scale of the slowdown is not so serious, the fact of the decline in growth is a negative factor. So the Canadian dollar will also be under pressure at the end of the week.
TAUTAN CEPAT
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