The test of the price at 1.1745 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero line, confirming it as a good selling entry point for the euro. As a result, the pair declined towards its target at 1.1720.
Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which included shelling several commercial vessels and seizing them, triggered an expected response in global financial markets. Demand for the dollar quickly returned, leading to a weakening of the European currency. While the US has not yet reacted to this, the situation is developing. Such escalation will inevitably affect global supply chains, as just recently there were discussions about opening the Strait of Hormuz, but today Iran has shown otherwise.
The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the first half of the day will depend on data on business activity in the eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors. Negative PMI results, amid the escalation of the new energy crisis, indicating a slowdown in economic activity or even a recession, could heighten concerns about the future prospects of the European economy, putting pressure on the euro.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1715 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1739. At point 1.1739, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expectations for the euro's growth today can only be based on positive news from the Middle East. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1701 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and could lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1715 and 1.1739.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1701 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1669, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair today will return with a tough stance from the US and Iran. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also intend to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1715 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1701 and 1.1669.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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