The US dollar is once again in demand amid events in the Middle East.
Yesterday, the US dollar rose sharply after news that Iran rejected the US's proposed 15-point peace agreement. Instead, Tehran presented its own 5 conditions, one of which is complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Iranian side insists on guarantees that the US and Israel will not resume their attacks, as well as military reparations.
These events clearly indicate that the parties are still far from achieving a real ceasefire. Tensions in the region remain high, and oil markets, which are sensitive to such geopolitical shifts, are preparing for further volatility. Many experts predict that continued conflict or even a new escalation will inevitably put pressure on global energy prices, which, in turn, may further strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven currency.
Today, the first significant news will be the release of the GfK consumer climate index from Germany. This indicator is a key barometer of consumer confidence in the country's economy, reflecting their expectations regarding future economic conditions, incomes, and willingness to make major purchases. Positive index values traditionally support consumer activity. Concurrently, data on private sector lending in the Eurozone will be presented. This figure provides insights into business and household activity in borrowing funds, which is a key factor for investment and consumption. The block of important reports will conclude with changes in the M3 money supply aggregate in the Eurozone.
As for the pound, today, in the absence of significant UK data, all attention from investors and analysts will be on speeches from key figures in the world of monetary policy. In particular, addresses are scheduled for two members of the Bank of England: Sarah Breeden, a member of the Financial Stability Committee, and Megan Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee.
These speeches are particularly valuable because they may contain important signals about the British central bank's future actions—especially in light of the sharp rise in inflation. Megan Greene's position is of special interest.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, the best approach is to use the Momentum strategy.
Buy on a breakout above the 1.1575 level, which may lead to an increase in the euro towards 1.1600 and 1.1625;
Sell on a breakout below the 1.1549 level, which may lead to a decrease in the euro towards 1.1519 and 1.1486;
Buy on a breakout above the 1.3373 level, which may lead to an increase in the pound towards 1.3390 and 1.3424;
Sell on a breakout below the 1.3349 level, which may lead to a decrease in the pound towards 1.3325 and 1.3300;
Buy on a breakout above the 159.55 level, which may lead to an increase in the dollar towards 159.74 and 159.94;
Sell on a breakout below the 159.35 level, which may lead to a drop in the dollar towards 159.05 and 158.87;
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1577 on a retracement back under this level;
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1553 on a retracement back to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3373 on a retracement back under this level;
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3345 on a retracement back to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6967 on a retracement back under this level;
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6938 on a retracement back to this level;
Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3832 on a retracement back under this level;
Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3812 on a retracement back to this level;
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