The GBP/USD currency pair is also expected to trade quite volatile next week, with the direction of movement depending on numerous events scheduled in the UK and the US, as well as potential developments in the Middle East. Let's start with the most straightforward topic (in our view)—geopolitics. Predicting anything in this area is akin to guessing when aliens will land on Earth. At any moment, the conflict could either continue its path toward de-escalation or flare up with renewed intensity. It's worth noting that neither Washington nor Tehran intends to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The US insists on negotiations and on signing a deal on its terms, while Tehran demands the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports before it will allow negotiations. Thus, the situation remains stagnant. However, this does not mean that the conflict cannot escalate. Knowing Donald Trump, he could order a new strike against Iran at any moment, particularly against power plants and bridges, as he has long promised.
It is essential to understand that a prolonged conflict in Iran is unlikely to be part of Trump's plans. With six months remaining until the Congressional elections, that isn't much time when you think about it. The longer the turmoil with the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the prices of oil and gas persists, the fewer chances the Republican Party has of winning even one chamber of Congress. What can the Republicans hope for? A swift end to the conflict, lower fuel prices, and a slowdown in inflation. In this case, American consumers and voters will quickly forget Trump's intervention in Iran, especially since it is far from the first in the last 15 months and likely will not be the last.
In both the UK and the US, central bank meetings will also take place; however, expectations for both events have become almost completely neutral in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve was not initially inclined toward either tightening policy or further easing, while the Bank of England considered raising rates in April, but the latest inflation report showed that prices are rising slightly faster since the outbreak of war in Iran than before. Therefore, it is likely that the British central bank will also not change the parameters of monetary policy. Nevertheless, accompanying statements and speeches from the heads of these banks could clarify many aspects of the central bank's plans.
In addition, at least three important reports will be published in the US. The ISM manufacturing activity index, durable goods orders, and the first-quarter 2026 GDP estimate will be released. Certainly, the market may very well ignore all these events and refocus solely on geopolitics. The last few central bank meetings did not provoke a strong market reaction, and traders have been ignoring macroeconomics for over two months. However, next week, traders will find it challenging to ignore such a strong flow of news. Therefore, we anticipate at least high volatility.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 77 pips, which is considered "average" for this currency pair. On Monday, April 27, we expect movement within a range bounded by 1.3454 and 1.3608. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator has entered overbought territory and formed a "bearish" divergence, signaling a potential downward pullback in advance.
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its recovery after two "months of geopolitics." Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect the U.S. dollar to grow in 2026. Thus, long positions with a target of 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.3454 and 1.3428 based on technical grounds. In recent weeks, the British currency has recovered, while the geopolitical factor has lost its influence on the market.
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