The GBP/USD currency pair also traded relatively weakly on Tuesday. There was a slight increase in the first half of the day, followed by a small decline in the second half. Overall volatility amounted to 65 pips, but the British currency at least experienced some movement, unlike the euro. Macroeconomic reports in the US had no impact on the GBP/USD pair, so during the day, we observed purely technical movements. Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East did not improve on Tuesday, as Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates several times again. However, the market did not consider this event significant and thus ignored it, just as it did the macroeconomic data from across the ocean.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains in an upward trend, albeit without a defined trend line. However, the price remains above the Ichimoku indicator lines, and there are no signs of a sideways move. In the latter half of the week, we can expect important geopolitical news, as well as the release of key labor market and unemployment data from the US. Therefore, volatility is expected to rise above current levels. Generally, we anticipate continued growth for the British currency in 2026.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, two trading signals were formed. At the start of the European trading session, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line, and at the beginning of the American session, it breached the Kijun-sen line. As a result, traders had the opportunity to open a long position, which could only be closed in the evening when the price returned to the critical line.
The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing steadily in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently intersect and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, with non-commercial traders still dominating with short positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is no surprise that demand for riskier currencies is falling while demand for the dollar is rising.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue, in one form or another, for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently at the forefront, having recently provided significant support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be considered resolved, the US dollar may still show growth potential in the future. According to the latest COT report (dated April 28), the "Non-commercial" group closed 3,500 BUY contracts and opened 5,000 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders fell by 8,500 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, which could be reversed if the British pound consolidates below the 1.3465-1.3480 area. The influence of geopolitics is continuing to wane, and the market is no longer paying close attention to all news from the Middle East. The dollar has lost its only significant support factor.
For May 6, we highlight the following important trading levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3521) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3555) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set a stop loss to breakeven when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK, while the US will release the ADP report on private-sector employment. It should be noted that this is not the most accurate report, and the market prefers to draw conclusions based on Nonfarm Payrolls. Therefore, another boring day may await us today.
Today, traders may consider trading signals around the level of 1.3588, the area of 1.3465-1.3480, and the Ichimoku indicator lines. However, we advise opening trades only if the nearest target is more than 30 pips away.
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