A price test at 1.3243 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. A second test of 1.3243 triggered Buy Scenario 2 and resulted in a 30-pip rise.
US data remained only background for the pound. The dollar found temporary support but lacked the strength to rally against sterling. US PPI in September rose 1.3% month-on-month versus 0.5% expected and accelerated to 6.3% year-on-year from 5.6%. Retail sales rose 0.8% versus 0.3% expected, and initial jobless claims were 199k versus 200k expected. For the Federal Reserve, these prints strengthen the case for a December hike, but the market had priced that in long ago. The key bullish case for the pound came from the UK: August GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month versus an expected -0.1%, three-month growth was +0.7% versus +0.5%, industrial production jumped 0.8% month-on-month versus -0.1% expected, and the goods trade deficit narrowed to £18.0bn. These figures bolster the Bank of England hawks: Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann voted in July for immediate tightening (Bank Rate is 3.75%). With that backdrop, the pound has double support—strong domestic data and no fresh driver for the dollar.
Today's UK calendar is empty for Friday, which is supportive for the pound. With no fresh UK releases to revise market expectations about BoE policy, the recent positive momentum can persist. I think the pound has a good chance of holding gains through the end of the week without new domestic news.
For intraday strategy I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the pound today near 1.3305 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3337 (thicker green line). I plan to exit long positions at 1.3337 and open short positions there, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. Expect pound gains today as a continuation of the trend. Important: Before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and just beginning to rise.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.3287 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.3305 and 1.3337.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3287 (red line). That should lead to a quick decline. Sellers' key target is 1.3265, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal). Bad news would restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.3305 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines toward 1.3287 and 1.3265.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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