Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

Testing the price at 1.0902 in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point to buy euros in the continuation of the upward trend. As a result, the pair has risen by about 20 points so far, maintaining the chances of updating the monthly high. In the second half of the day, we are expecting data that is unlikely to significantly impact market direction. Only the Empire Manufacturing Index is expected, so all attention should be paid to the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and FOMC member Mary Daly. A hawkish Powell and a direct hint at maintaining rates unchanged despite inflation progress will lead to a rise in the dollar and a fall in the euro. A dovish tone from the Fed Chairman will allow the euro to continue its rise with updates to new monthly highs. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2 in the continuation of the trend.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0920 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.0955. At 1.0955, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. We can count on a strong upward movement of the euro today after soft comments from the Fed Chairman. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0885 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0920 and 1.0955 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0885 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0850, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to go beyond the daily maximum and negative comments from Powell. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0920 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downward. A decline to the opposite level of 1.0885 and 1.0850 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.