The euro is trading around 1.1614 within the downtrend channel that has formed since August 19. Technically, on the H4 chart, we observe that the euro is below the 21 SMA at 1.1619 and below the 7/8 Murray line, which suggests EUR/USD could continue to fall in the coming days.

If the euro reaches the upper band of the uptrend channel again—around 1.1625—in the coming hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions. We expect EUR/USD to reach the 6/8 Murray line around 1.596; ultimately, we expect it to find strong support around 1.1578.

Technically, while the euro gets stuck below 1.1619, downward pressure persists, and we could view this area as an opportunity to open short positions. We believe that the euro could reach the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1535 in the coming days.

A decisive break above 1.1635 could change the outlook for the euro, and we could expect it to reach 7/8 of Murray around 1.1657 and ultimately reach 8/8 of Murray around 1.1718.