Trade breakdown and guidance on trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 147.04 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 146.66.

Today's U.S. session is rich in macroeconomic reports that are the focus of investors seeking a clearer understanding of both the labor market and manufacturing. Particular attention will be given to the release of weekly initial jobless claims. Traders will carefully compare actual data with forecasts to assess the labor market's resilience and signs of a slowdown. Considering that the labor market situation is far from ideal, an increase in claims could trigger another wave of dollar selling and yen buying.

The change in factory orders will also be closely analyzed, as this indicator reflects the state of the manufacturing sector, a key driver of economic growth. An increase in orders points to stronger demand for goods, positively impacting employment and investment activity. Conversely, a decline in orders may signal weakening demand and potential slowdown in economic expansion. To conclude the day, market participants will focus on a speech by FOMC member Lorie K. Logan. Investors will scrutinize her remarks to gauge the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. A dovish tone would serve as a trigger for dollar selling.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 146.82 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.22 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.22, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Growth in the pair can only be expected if U.S. data is very strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 146.51 level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 146.82 and 147.22.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 146.51 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.11, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may persist if U.S. data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 146.82 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can then be expected toward 146.51 and 146.11.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as a decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for any intraday trader.