Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

Due to low volatility, tests of the levels I identified did not occur. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.

The US trading session is expected to be more eventful, with the release of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. However, it should be noted that markets may have already partially priced in the expected positive outcomes. Therefore, for a meaningful rise in the US dollar against the yen, actual data will need to exceed analyst forecasts. Otherwise, even strong figures may keep USD/JPY trading within a narrow sideways range near the psychological level of 160, a level from which the Bank of Japan has frequently intervened in currency markets recently. Just yesterday, senior officials from the Bank of Japan once again hinted at possible intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.79 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.08 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.08, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. Growth in the pair today is possible in the case of weak agreement-related news and strong US economic data.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 159.67 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. In this case, a move toward 159.79 and 160.08 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.67 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.43, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider opening long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair is expected to return in the case of weak economic reports.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.79 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. In this case, a decline toward 159.67 and 159.43 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make trading decisions with extreme caution. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire account, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.