Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

The 1.1596 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1596 led to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling the euro, but the trade resulted in a loss.

The final Eurostat estimate confirmed that eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% y/y. Excluding the energy component, the index would have been 2.2%. Services inflation accelerated to 3.3% and accounted for more than half of overall inflation, while core inflation rose to 2.5%, exactly the level the regulator had projected in its June forecast. Against this backdrop, rate expectations shifted noticeably toward tighter monetary policy, which in itself is positive for the further upside outlook for EUR/USD.

The euro will spend the second half of the day awaiting the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, which will be the main event of the session. The document is particularly significant because three committee members voted for a rate hike at that meeting, while the majority favored keeping rates unchanged. The minutes will help clarify how broad the support for tighter policy was and what arguments were put forward by supporters and opponents of such a move. Based on this, the market will adjust its expectations for the future path of monetary policy. A hawkish tone in the minutes will strengthen the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD, while cautious wording will support the euro.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1620 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1638. At 1.1638, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro's rise today can be expected only after weak U.S. economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1604 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1620 and 1.1638 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1604 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1584, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return following strong economic data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1620 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1604 and 1.1584 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the expected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the expected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of economic data, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.