The GBP/USD currency pair remained in place on Wednesday. Data on U.S. GDP and durable goods orders slightly stirred the market, but overall, the pair's volatility remained low. We will discuss the American data further in separate articles. For now, we can only say that the market is sleeping and waiting for an event with a capital "E" to come along. This event may be the annual Non-Farm Payrolls. It could be Kevin Warsh's speech. Or perhaps it will be Trump's new war.

Fortunately, this time it concerns only a sanctions war. Recall that the U.S. president aims to weaken Iran not through new missile strikes but by imposing an economic blockade. In simple terms, if Iran runs out of resources to survive, it will quickly surrender and sign all the necessary papers for capitulation and the abandonment of nuclear weapons. At least, that's what Trump thinks. By the way, does the "Iranian Economic Blockade" ring any bells? A year ago, Trump was very eager to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, imposing all possible sanctions against the Kremlin to block energy sales and make it impossible to continue the war. What came of that? Nothing. Trump will likely face a similar scenario with Iran.

Moreover, the U.S. president has not elaborated on the timing of the new operation against Iran. Recall that Operation "Epic Fury" was supposed to last for two weeks. It has been six months since then. Now Trump has envisioned the economic isolation of Iran. How long should that last? Furthermore, Trump needs to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz to achieve a complete cessation of oil and other energy supplies from Iran to the outside world.

Now, let's put ourselves in Iran's shoes. You are under full blockade, and it is a matter of survival. What will you do? We believe that Iran will try to lift the blockade by force, as Tehran has already warned Washington. Consequently, a new military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran seems inevitable. As for the economic restrictions, Trump wants to impose them not against Iran but against countries that do business with Iran. Well, we can only wait to see how Trump will handle sanctions against Turkey or China. America will immediately receive similar sanctions and restrictions in response, which will certainly impact its economy, which has not been shining lately. Overall, Trump is currently doing more harm not to Iran but to America. With just 2.5 months until the Congressional elections, we are already curious about how many seats the Republicans will lose in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Probably many...

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 52 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "low." On Thursday, August 27, we expect movement within the range bounded by 1.3535 and 1.3639. The upper linear regression channel has shifted upward, indicating a continuation of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area three times, warning of a potential correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3550

S2 – 1.3489

S3 – 1.3428

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3611

R2 – 1.3672

R3 – 1.3733

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy; therefore, we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is shaping up to be highly positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors, but every fairy tale comes to an end. On the weekly timeframe, the flat pattern persists between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, supporting expectations of continued growth in the British currency in the medium term.

Long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 can be considered if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading on the downside can be conducted with targets of 1.3550 and 1.3535.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings: 20, 0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price corridor in which the pair will operate for the next day, based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator—its entry into the overbought area (above +250) or oversold area (below -250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.