The Elliott Wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has become more complex. On the higher timeframe (lower chart), the downward trend segment has taken the form of a five-wave A-B-C-D-E structure, which could be completed at any moment, as it appears structurally complete. All waves within this segment are approximately equal in size, so this structure is considered corrective. If this assumption is correct, a new upward impulsive trend segment will begin once the correction is complete, with targets well above the 20.00 level.

On the lower timeframe (upper chart), an impulsive wave sequence is still developing and may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how strongly it rises. The projected wave 5 within wave E is complete or close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven the US dollar significantly higher, but few new factors remain to support further dollar appreciation.

Will the Market Find Reasons to Buy the Euro?

EUR/USD declined by 15 basis points on Friday, but the trading range remained narrow despite a substantial number of economic releases. However, Friday and the previous week are now behind the market, as the focus shifts to the current week, during which at least two major events could help the market determine its next move. These events are the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings. Several economic reports should also be difficult for traders to ignore, including US GDP for the third quarter and the core PCE price index.

Despite the attention these events are likely to attract, any of them could ultimately be disregarded by the market. The ECB is not expected to change its monetary policy settings in October, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rates this week. US GDP is an important indicator, but economic data currently appear to be taking a back seat. The core PCE price index is also unlikely to change the Fed's stance following the latest inflation report. Therefore, Monday may give the impression that an active trading week lies ahead. In practice, however, this may not be the case.

The main question at this point is whether the market will find grounds to buy the euro. The current wave structure is relatively clear and points to the development of an upward trend segment on both timeframes. Consequently, either the wave structure will be invalidated or the market will begin buying the euro. The Federal Reserve meeting, the ECB meeting, weak US economic growth, and subdued US core inflation could all help support such a move. The remaining task is to wait for these events. At present, a substantial rise in the euro during the final two months of 2026 remains the primary scenario.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within a global corrective trend segment labeled A-B-C-D-E. However, this structure appears complete and may therefore be nearing its end. In this context, the current period appears favorable not only for buying the euro but also for anticipating a fully developed upward trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, the pair is expected to rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The unsuccessful attempt to break above 1.1126, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a move higher.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but this pattern may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The Main Principles of This Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the expected pattern.
2. If there is uncertainty about current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty about the direction of price movement is neither possible nor realistic. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.