Monday, July 4 As a rule, the economic calendar is empty on Mondays, but not this time. Firstly, data on inflation in Switzerland are being published today: the indicator has increased from 2.9% to 3.4%. And although this is a rather insignificant increase in comparison with other countries, but for Switzerland, which has suffered from deflation for a long time, this is very, very much. Also on Monday, data on the producer price index in the eurozone is published, which should decrease from 37.2% to 36.7%. All this will indicate that there are signals of a decrease in inflation. However, these data are unlikely to have an impact on the dynamics of the market, since today is a day off in the USA on the occasion of the celebration of Independence Day. And when the American market is closed, activity in the global financial markets practically comes to naught. So the foreign exchange market will consolidate around the values reached on Friday. Tuesday, July 5 Tuesday will start with the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The regulator is expected to raise the rate from 0.85% to 1.35%. Australia will also provide data on the volume of retail sales in the country. Next, statistics will be published on the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as on the composite index of business activity in the eurozone countries. However, similar data on the manufacturing sector published last Friday were ignored by the market, so the statistics on the service sector are also likely to have no effect on the market. Therefore, it is quite possible that we will see a further strengthening of the US dollar. Wednesday, July 6 The main event of Wednesday will be the publication of retail sales data in Europe, which will lead to an even greater weakening of the single European currency. The fact is that their growth rates should slow down from 3.9% to 3.1%, and a further decline in consumer activity in the region is an exceptionally negative factor. However, after the opening of the US trading session, the dollar will already be under pressure. The driver of the decline will be data on open vacancies, the number of which should decrease from 11.4 million to 11.3 million. This indicates either an increasing overheating of the labor market, or a noticeable decrease in investment in the creation of new jobs. Both options are not the best, and the dollar will clearly lose its position. Thursday, July 7 On Thursday, the minutes of the board meeting of the European Central Bank will be published, which will arouse considerable interest among market participants. The main question is how much the European regulator intends to raise interest rates (will the central bank limit itself to one increase or will it gradually tighten monetary policy by the end of this year). Data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will remain virtually unnoticed, as they are published at about the same time as the minutes of the ECB meeting. Friday, July 8 Well, the main event of the whole week will be the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor. The Non-farm Payrolls report is usually published on the first Friday of each month. Analysts predict that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged, but 300 thousand new jobs may be created outside agriculture. And this is noticeably less than the figure of 390 thousand in the previous month, which hints at a loss of dynamics and the appearance of signs of the beginning of deterioration of the situation in the labor market. This will be the main reason for the weakening of the dollar at the end of the trading week.
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