Monday, October 17 The beginning of the trading week is again accompanied by an absolutely empty macroeconomic calendar. However, this is even for the best, since market participants will have the opportunity to digest the dismissal of the British Finance Minister on Friday, which surprised everyone. Moreover, the issue of the Prime Minister's resignation is already being considered (although Liz Truss took up this post about a month and a half ago). So the growing political crisis in the UK will be the main topic of discussion this week. Tuesday, October 18 On Tuesday, the dollar may weaken somewhat due to data on industrial production in the United States, the growth rate of which should slow down from 3.7% to 3.4%. Otherwise, the calendar is completely empty again. Wednesday, October 19 Wednesday will probably be the busiest day in terms of published macroeconomic statistics. It will all start with the publication of data on inflation in the UK, the level of which should remain unchanged. However, some forecasts suggest that inflation will still rise slightly. In any case, we are talking about extremely high rates of consumer price growth, so the Bank of England will be forced to further raise the refinancing rate. That will allow the pound to strengthen its position somewhat. But the inflation data in the eurozone will be ignored, as the final data are published, which should confirm the preliminary estimate already taken into account by the market. The day ends with inflation data in Canada. Inflation is projected to decrease from 7% to 6.8%, so we should expect a slight, but still weakening of the Canadian dollar. Thursday, October 20 Thursday will begin with the growth of the Australian dollar after the release of unemployment data, the level of which should decrease from 3.5% to 3.4%. And this, in principle, is where all the most interesting publications will end, since the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States should remain virtually unchanged. Therefore, these data will not have a visible impact on the dynamics of the market. Friday, October 21 The most important event on Friday will be the publication of inflation data in Japan, where it may rise from 3.0% to 3.2%. Since it is already difficult to ignore the continuing increase in inflation, the Bank of Japan will soon be forced to act by raising the refinancing rate. And the expectation of this will contribute to the strengthening of the yen. The British pound will also be able to strengthen its position a little – due to a slowdown in the decline in retail sales from -5.4% to -4.8%. But the Canadian dollar will be under pressure due to a slowdown in retail sales growth from 8.0% to 6.5%.
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