Monday, October 4 The week started with macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland, which provided some support to the Swiss franc. The fact is that retail sales increased by 0.5% in August compared to the previous year. In addition, the consumer price index in Switzerland in September did not change compared to August (0.9%), although analysts expected an increase of 0.2% mom, to 1.1%. And inflation, which is well below the target level of 2%, is considered exclusively as a positive factor. Tuesday, October 5 But the data on retail sales in Australia may undermine the position of the national currency, as their volume should decrease by 1.7%. The only thing that can save him is the results of the board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and even then, only if the Australian regulator announces plans to tighten monetary policy. The single European currency will also come under pressure on Tuesday. The producer price index may rise from 12.1% to 13.7%, which means that inflation in Europe will continue to rise, although it is already quite high. Wednesday, October 6 Wednesday will start with a rise in the New Zealand dollar, as the Central Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly raise the refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. And in the current conditions, such a step is considered an exceptionally positive factor. But the European currency will continue to lose its position, this time due to retail sales, the growth rate of which may slow down from 3.1% to 0.6%. This in itself is quite an impressive drop, and if we add to this a further increase in inflation, then the picture becomes extremely pessimistic at all. The US dollar, on the contrary, will have an incentive for growth in the form of employment growth by 350 thousand, which is quite a good result. Thursday, October 7 Thursday will be the quietest day of the week, and the only thing you can pay attention to is applications for unemployment benefits. The number of initial appeals should grow by 14 thousand, and repeated ones by another 12 thousand. However, the scale of the reduction is quite modest, so it's not worth waiting for some kind of market reaction. In the evening, Canada will present statistics on business activity from Ivey in September. Friday, October 8 The most important event of the week will be the report of the US Department of Labor, which is traditionally published on the first Friday of each month. Analysts expect that 410 thousand new jobs should be created outside agriculture. And this is despite the fact that the unemployment rate may decrease from 5.2% to 5.1%. And for such a level of unemployment, about 200 thousand new jobs per month are considered normal. In other words, the forecasts for the Payrolls report are extremely positive, which will contribute to the further growth of the dollar.
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