Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The price test at 1.1773 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 1.1802.

President Donald Trump's defeat in the Supreme Court regarding the tariffs imposed last year triggered significant market instability. In response, Trump threatened to impose new fees and promised to maintain existing tariffs through other means. However, it is evident that despite this legal setback, President Trump is unlikely to abandon his intentions. His rhetoric has become even more aggressive, and his promises to introduce new tariffs or find alternative ways to maintain existing measures have revived a wave of concern, which weakened the dollar's position.

Today's early hours will be marked by attention to indicators from the IFO Institute. The publication of three key indices—the business climate index, the current situation index, and the economic expectations index—will allow for an assessment of the German economy. These indicators serve as a mirror of sentiment in the business environment, reflecting entrepreneurs' views on current conditions and their expectations for the future. An improvement in these indices relative to forecasts can support the euro. In addition to the German statistics, Italian inflation data will also be released today. The consumer price index for Italy will impact the assessment of the overall inflation backdrop in the Eurozone. Stable or moderately declining figures may confirm the appropriateness of the European Central Bank's current monetary policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today if the price reaches around 1.1832 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1868. At the level of 1.1868, I intend to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1815, during which the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth towards opposing levels of 1.1832 and 1.1868 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the 1.1815 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1794, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair today will return if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1832 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease toward opposing levels of 1.1815 and 1.1794 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, focus on the overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.