Brent oil prices fell below $80 per barrel after two sessions of 5% declines, as investors began to price in an imminent reopening of the strategic route. According to Axios, the US, Iran and Oman are close to a 60-day temporary agreement on free passage for ships, and Donald Trump announced a breakthrough in talks within 48 hours. Despite Qatar preparing proposals and discussions on demining with European countries underway, a new Houthi attack on a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea failed to reverse the downtrend in energy prices.
Tehran made control of the Strait of Hormuz its main lever of pressure on the US ahead of the midterm elections, but that strategy has inflicted a heavy blow on the Iranian economy. The IMF forecasts Iran's GDP will contract by 6% in 2026, with inflation around 69% and acute fuel shortages domestically. The anticipated massive oil shock did not materialize: although shipments from the Persian Gulf plunged to 36% of pre-war levels, prices failed to hold above $100 per barrel and fell below $80 on Tuesday.
The market was already oversupplied before the conflict, and China, instead of supporting its ally, is cutting purchases of Iranian oil. Beijing's purchases have dropped by 4–5 million barrels per day — roughly equivalent to nearly 5% of global demand. Buyers in Asia have been drawing down their own stocks rather than signing new contracts. However, if Chinese refineries and state entities begin rebuilding reserves, that would create colossal additional demand on an already tight global market.
Officially denying direct contacts with the US, Tehran is holding parallel consultations with Oman on creating a temporary shipping corridor with fees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out Washington's tough stance:
In the long run, Saudi and Emirati projects to create bypass routes for transporting crude could reduce the world's strategic dependence on Hormuz. However, all these logistical routes remain within range of Iranian missiles and drones. The muted impact of the energy shock on global markets is explained by hidden adjustment mechanisms, many of which are temporary and close to exhaustion.
All these factors support high transport costs and inflation even amid a local decline in crude prices. Saudi Arabia's rerouting of 5–7 million barrels per day via the East–West pipeline into the Red Sea partly cushions the market, but this alternative route is losing reliability as security risks escalate simultaneously in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The time gained by these buffers is running out. The global economy's margin for error has sharply narrowed, and any new supply disruptions will translate directly into a severe burst of inflationary pressure on prices.
6 August, 4:30 / Australia / Trade balance in June / prev.: 1.383 bn AUD / act.: -3.018 bn AUD / forecast: -1.100 bn AUD / AUD/USD – up
In May, Australia unexpectedly posted a ten-year record trade deficit of AUD 3.02 billion. A sharp drop in gold and ore exports combined with frenzied imports of cars, aircraft equipment, and data-center gear severely worsened the country's external trade position. If the indicator turns back toward a surplus in the July report, the Australian dollar could quickly recoup lost ground.
6 August, 4:30 / Australia / Building permits in June / prev.: 12.1% / act.: 5.5% / forecast: 8.9% / AUD/USD – up
The volume of building permits issued in Australia for June increased by 8.9% month-on-month, reaching 18.3k units. The indicator has accelerated for a second consecutive month, hitting a four-month high and signaling a revival in the developer sector. Continued strength in housing activity would provide a positive impulse for the whole economy and support the Australian dollar.
6 August, 9:00 / Germany / Manufacturing orders in June (m/m) / prev.: -3.8% / act.: 1.9% / forecast: 0.3% / EUR/USD – down
Manufacturing orders in Germany recovered by 1.9% month-on-month in May thanks to:
Meanwhile, the auto sector and microelectronics remain in decline. The June release is expected to show another drop; if so, the euro would come under pressure.
6 August, 10:30 / Eurozone / Construction PMI in July / prev.: 43.7 pts / act.: 42.8 pts / forecast: 43.6 pts / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone construction PMI fell to 42.8 in June, remaining deep in contraction. The sector suffers from high borrowing costs and suppressed developer investment, lagging well behind long-term historical norms. Nonetheless, an increase is expected in July. An improvement in construction would support the euro.
6 August, 10:30 / Germany / Construction PMI in July / prev.: 42.4 pts / act.: 44.8 pts / forecast: 45.0 pts / EUR/USD – up
Germany's construction PMI rose to 44.8 in June, showing a slowdown in the pace of contraction. Although residential construction remains weak, the commercial segment saw:
A smaller contraction in July would signal a gradual recovery in German development activity and support the single currency.
6 August, 11:30 / UK / Construction PMI (S&P Global) in July / prev.: 38.2 pts / act.: 38.4 pts / forecast: 41.5 pts / GBP/USD – up
The UK construction PMI from S&P Global was 38.4 in June, a slight uptick from May's lows. The commercial sector showed the most resilience. Residential and civil construction are experiencing a deep downturn due to:
At the same time, logistics delays have eased, and expectations for government infrastructure projects have lifted developer optimism to a spring high. If July's reading moves onto a recovery path, the pound will have a solid base for gains.
6 August, 12:00 / Eurozone / Retail sales in June / prev.: 0.9% / act.: 1.6% / forecast: 1.0% / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone retail sales rose 1.6% in May, accelerating sharply after April's decline. The current reading is above long-run averages and confirms renewed activity in the retail sector. Confirmation of positive momentum in the June report could support the euro; forecasts, however, expect the opposite.
6 August, 15:30 / US / Challenger job cuts in July / prev.: 97,006 / act.: 45,849 / forecast: 59.0k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Announced layoffs in the US fell 53% in June to 45.8k, the lowest level since late 2025. While the IT sector and AI adoption continue to drive workforce optimization, overall large-scale cuts in H1 were 40% below last year, and corporate hiring plans rose 10%. An increase in layoffs in July would signal weakening corporate resilience and add pressure on the US dollar.
6 August, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 188k / act.: 197k / forecast: 202k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
The weekly initial claims release could have a similar effect. The indicator has been trending up over the past two weeks. At the same time, continuing claims fell to 1.782 million, the lowest in a month, supporting the Fed's assessment of near-full employment.
6 August, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global services PMI in June / prev.: 50.6 pts / act.: 47.1 pts / forecast: 48.0 pts / USD/CAD – down
Canada's services PMI from S&P Global fell to 47.1 in June, marking the sharpest sector contraction since February. New order inflows have declined for a second month as high prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on domestic and external demand. Firms continued modest hiring to build capacity, and work-in-progress fell at the fastest pace since the start of the year. Input-cost and output inflation eased notably, but business sentiment dropped to a late-2025 low. Despite being in contraction, any pickup in the indicator would support the Canadian dollar.
7 August, 2:30 / Japan / Household spending dynamics in June / prev.: -0.5% / act.: -0.4% / forecast: 1.0% / USD/JPY – down
Consumer spending in Japan fell to -0.4% month-on-month in May, the weakest decline in six months. Month-on-month household outlays rose by 3.7% thanks to strong purchases of:
These sectors partly offset lower spending on communications and utilities. A rise in the June report would confirm resilience in domestic demand and open the way for a stronger yen.
China's June exports jumped 27%, hitting a record $412.39 billion, driven by the global boom in AI infrastructure and semiconductors (+122%). Solid contributions also came from shipments of:
The trade surplus with the EU rose to a record $32.9 billion, and overall exports grew 17.6% in H1. Continued strong export momentum in July would support oil prices and strengthen the Chinese yuan.
7 August, 6:00 / China / Import growth in July / prev.: 27.4% / act.: 36.0% / forecast: 28.6% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's imports in June surged 36% year-on-year to a record $286.76 billion thanks to active purchases of AI equipment, gas, coal, and metals from Asia, Australia and the Americas. The only weak category was crude oil (-41%) due to the Iran conflict. Total imports rose 26.6% in H1. A downside surprise in July's import data would highlight fragility in domestic demand and weigh on oil and the yuan.
7 August, 9:00 / Germany / Trade balance in June / prev.: 14.7 bn EUR / act.: 19.1 bn EUR / forecast: 17.4 bn EUR / EUR/USD – down
Germany's trade surplus rose to €19.1 billion in May. Exports unexpectedly increased 0.9%, reaching a 3.5-year high of €137.9 billion amid explosive growth in shipments to the US (+23.1%). Imports fell 2.5% due to reduced inflows from China and EU countries. A fall in the trade surplus in June would weigh on the euro.
7 August, 9:00 / Germany / Industrial production in June (m/m) / prev.: 0.2% / act.: 0.9% / forecast: 0.3% / EUR/USD – down
German industrial production rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, the best gain since last autumn. The recovery was led by:
Their growth offset a small decline in intermediate goods. On an annual basis, production returned to zero growth for the first time in a long while. The June report is expected to be lower, which would be a headwind for the euro.
7 August, 9:00 / UK / Lloyds house price index in July / prev.: 0.5% / act.: 0.6% / forecast: 0.4% / GBP/USD – down
Lloyds' UK house price index rose 0.6% in June, offsetting May's dip as mortgage rates eased. The average house price increased to £299.3k, led by Northern Ireland (+7.4%). Despite a temporary squeeze in mortgage approvals, cheaper financing sets the stage for a gradual market recovery. However, July's report may show a decline, which would be negative for the pound.
7 August, 15:30 / Canada / Change in employment in July / prev.: 87.8k / act.: 18.2k / forecast: 15.0k / USD/CAD – up
Employment in Canada increased by 18k in June, beating broad expectations. The private sector (+32k) and hospitality were the main contributors. Hiring in hospitality expanded for a third consecutive month, offsetting cuts in manufacturing and the public sector. The overall participation rate rose to 60.8%. The July report is expected to be a bit lower, which could weigh on the Canadian dollar.
7 August, 15:30 / US / Change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) in July / prev.: 129k / act.: 57k / forecast: 80k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57k in June, the weakest four-month reading after a sizeable downward revision to May. Business services, healthcare and social assistance kept hiring, while leisure and hospitality lost 61k jobs due to weak seasonal effects and the World Cup. A report that beats expectations would trigger a dollar rally.
7 August, 15:30 / US / Average hourly earnings in July / prev.: 3.4% / act.: 3.5% / forecast: 3.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
Year-on-year average hourly earnings in the US private sector accelerated to 3.5% in June, confirming analysts' expectations and continuing a moderate rise from May's 3.4%. July data in line with forecasts would confirm ongoing wage pressure on inflation and support the US dollar.
7 August, 17:00 / Canada / Ivey business activity index in July / prev.: 58.2 pts / act.: 56.2 pts / forecast: 55.5 pts / USD/CAD – up
Canada's Ivey business activity index eased to 56.2 in June, ending a three-month expansion streak. Despite a dip in the price subindex and slower hiring, the index stayed in expansion thanks to:
If July shows further cooling, the Canadian dollar would lose some support.
7 August, 18:00 / US / New York Fed 1-year consumer inflation expectations in June / prev.: 3.5% / act.: 3.7% / forecast: 3.8% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Median US consumer 1-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% in June, the highest since autumn 2023. The three-year measure increased to 3.3%. With falling gasoline price expectations, Americans reported improved labor market conditions:
A further rise in inflation expectations would strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance on rates. If forecasts are confirmed, markets would have another reason to push the dollar higher.
9 August, 4:30 / China / Consumer price index (CPI) in June / prev.: 1.2% / act.: 1.0% / forecast: 0.9% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's consumer inflation slowed to 1.0% in June, the weakest pace in three months. Slower nonfood price growth reflected lower retail fuel prices after easing geopolitical tensions. Cheaper pork and fresh fruit kept food inflation in deflation, and core inflation fell to 1.0%. Slower inflation signals subdued domestic demand. Continued moderation would be negative for Brent and could weaken the yuan.
9 August, 4:30 / China / Producer price index (PPI) in June / prev.: 3.9% / act.: 4.1% / forecast: 4.3% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's PPI accelerated to 4.1% year-on-year in June, the fastest pace since summer 2022. The rise was driven by higher costs for raw materials and energy amid global pressures on energy markets. At the same time, wholesale prices for consumer goods continue to fall, showing uneven inflationary pressure along the production chain. Stronger industrial inflation signals ongoing activity in China's manufacturing sector. If the data match forecasts, commodity prices and the yuan would gain.
7 August, 0:30 / US / Speech by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem / USDX
7 August, 17:00 / US / Speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin / USDX
Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled on these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may indicate future plans for policy rates.
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