Trade Review and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1785 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair did not decline, and losses were recorded on the trade.

Even despite the Federal Reserve's emphasis on prioritizing the fight against inflation, traders apparently expected more hawkish statements. However, there were also members within the Fed yesterday who supported a more aggressive reduction in interest rates this year by as much as 1.0 percentage point, which does not align at all with the risk of rising inflation. Overall, the confusion continues, which has discouraged traders from buying the dollar.

Today, in the first half of the day, important data are expected on the eurozone services sector business activity index, the composite PMI, the consumer price index, and the eurozone core consumer price index. Markets are eagerly awaiting the PMI releases, which are leading indicators of economic activity. Improved figures would indicate a recovery in the eurozone economy, providing support for the euro. Increased attention will also be paid to inflation data. In particular, the focus will be on the core consumer price index (Core CPI). This is because it excludes food and energy prices, reflecting the real level of inflation. This allows the ECB to assess long-term inflation trends more accurately and make balanced decisions on interest rates. If the headline CPI remains resilient, the ECB may maintain a restrictive monetary policy, while a decline in the indicator could force the regulator to soften its approach.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price level around 1.1840 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1867. At 1.1867, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Today, euro growth can be expected only after strong data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1828 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward market turn. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1840 and 1.1867 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1828 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1806 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the statistics are weak.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1840 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward market turn. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1828 and 1.1806 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented by me above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.