The test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement.
An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heightened uncertainty in the market. On the one hand, the reduction in jobs highlights potential difficulties in the U.S. economy and could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish approach in its monetary policy. On the other hand, the business activity index suggests stability in the manufacturing sector and continued economic growth.
Today, during the first half of the day, only the eurozone unemployment rate data for August is expected. Although unemployment data is a single data point, it could still impact short-term strategies. A significant deviation from forecasts may trigger local fluctuations in currency pairs, especially the euro.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches around 1.1753 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.1800 level. At the 1.1800 mark, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30–35 pip retracement from the entry point. Betting on a rise in the euro is only reasonable following very strong reports. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1728 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. In this case, growth to the opposite levels of 1.1753 and 1.1800 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1728 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1686 level, where I plan to exit the market and initiate a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rally from the level). Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today, in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1753 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1728 and 1.1686 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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