Trade review and trading tips for the European currency

The price test at 1.1656 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move above the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by just 7 pips.

November data on US producer prices, which showed an increase, favorably affected dollar positions, putting pressure back on the EUR/USD pair. The PPI, which tracks producer prices, increased by 0.2% from the previous month, exceeding experts' forecasts. Together with the recent small rise in consumer prices, the new data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on further rate cuts.

Today, figures on the change in eurozone industrial production are expected in the first half of the day. This indicator reflects the condition of the real sector of the economy and is a measure of overall business activity. A noticeable rise in industrial production could signal a revival of the eurozone economy and boost the euro. The state of the trade balance also plays an important role — especially in the context of new trade tariffs. An export surplus over imports usually supports the national currency. Publication of the European Central Bank's economic bulletin will provide analysts with more detailed information on the current economic situation in the eurozone and future monetary policy. The bulletin will likely contain forecasts for inflation, economic growth, employment, and other key macroeconomic indicators. Investors will pay particular attention to hints about the ECB's further interest rate action.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought around 1.1643 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1665. At 1.1665, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro on the rebound, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. Expect euro growth only after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the price tests 1.1631 twice. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise toward the opposing levels 1.1643 and 1.1665.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1631 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately on the rebound (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move from that level). Pressure on the pair may return quickly today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the price tests 1.1643 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. One can expect a decline toward the opposing levels 1.1631 and 1.1614.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.