Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

There were no tests of the levels I identified during the first half of the day, so I remained out of the market with no trades.

PMI data for the eurozone manufacturing sector did not provide much support for the euro's rise. In the second half of the day, market attention will be focused on the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, which reflects the condition of the manufacturing sector, as well as on a speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. The market always closely watches the ISM index, as it serves as a key indicator of activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Any discrepancy between actual and expected figures may trigger a strong market reaction, especially if the deviation is significant. Positive results are often interpreted as a favorable sign for the economy, which would support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on the euro.

The speech by Raphael Bostic is no less important. Market participants will carefully analyze his remarks for clues about the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Any hints at potential interest rate cuts could weigh on the dollar. At the same time, confirmation of the Fed's determination to continue fighting inflation with strict measures could strengthen the dollar's position.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signals

Scenario No. 1

Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1877 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1947. At 1.1947, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro should be expected only after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2

Buying the euro is also planned if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1845 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1877 and 1.1947.

Sell Signals

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1845 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1772, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. data.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1877 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1845 and 1.1772.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance

Important Note

Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.