The test of the price at 1.1535 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 20 pips.
The US dollar rose last Friday, spurred by data showing a March surge in job growth. Concurrently, the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased, signaling stabilization in the labor market. These positive economic indicators strengthened the US currency's position on the international stage, reviving investor enthusiasm. The increase in the number of jobs, which exceeded forecasts, and the simultaneous decrease in the unemployment rate are strong arguments for the strength of the American economy.
Today, there is no data from the Eurozone, so all attention will be on the US's subsequent actions regarding Iran. This geopolitical factor is sure to have a significant impact on oil prices and subsequently on other instruments. In the event of escalation, we may see a sharp strengthening of the US dollar against the euro. Recall that tomorrow marks the expiration of Trump's ultimatum regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to new, larger attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching a price in the area of 1.1530 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1555. At the level of 1.1555, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro back, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the euro today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1515 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1530 and 1.1555 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1515 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1492, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today if the war in the Middle East worsens. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1530 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1515 and 1.1492 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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