Today, the British pound and the Canadian dollar performed very well using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not execute any trades using the Momentum strategy.
The lack of clear drivers led the EUR/USD pair to trade within a narrow sideways range during the first half of the day. The British pound also remained relatively calm, as the UK Consumer Price Index data for March came in only slightly above economists' forecasts. This key inflation indicator showed an acceleration compared to previous months; however, the main reason was the U.S. military actions in the Middle East, which are now gradually approaching their conclusion.
However, it is important to understand that the increase in consumer prices above analysts' expectations signaled the possibility of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England. In conditions of elevated inflation, central banks often consider raising interest rates as a tool to contain it. This, in turn, makes the national currency—in this case, the pound—more attractive.
The market's future direction will be determined by any news related to either rising tensions or de-escalation in the Middle East. The prospect of a truce between the U.S. and Iran carries the potential for significant changes. On one hand, it may lead to stabilization in energy prices and reduced demand for the U.S. dollar, which typically supports risk assets, including the euro. On the other hand, the uncertain negotiation process and its details may continue to maintain market volatility.
Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding aggressive positions until a clearer picture emerges.
If strong data is released, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.
Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
RÁPIDOS ENLACES
Contáctenos 
