Morning Brief: August 7

• Trump is imposing additional 25% duties on goods from India due to Russian oil. This measure was a response to New Delhi's ongoing purchases of Russian oil. The new duties will take effect in 21 days, but may be revised if Russia or other countries take «significant steps to resolve the crisis in Ukraine.» Similar measures may be applied to other buyers of Russian oil.

• India between the USA and Russia: Modi found himself in a difficult situation. Trump's tough stance is forcing India to seek a balance between national interests and external pressure. Currently, the country imports about 45% of all oil from Russia. Refusal of these supplies can lead to higher prices and production problems. However, accepting American terms can cause no less damage — cumulative duties on Indian goods can reach 50%, which will lead to higher prices even with modest trade volumes with the United States. 

• Brazil offers BRICS to discuss the response to the US tariff policy. Brazilian President Lula da Silva has taken the initiative to hold a meeting with the leaders of Russia and China to work out a collective BRICS response to the actions of the United States. He accused Donald Trump of undermining the principles of international cooperation and seeking to replace the multilateral approach with unilateral decisions. According to Trump, BRICS is an anti-American bloc.

• The Russian economy is at risk of slipping into recession by 2026. According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, the Russian economy may enter a recession as early as 2026. In May, the composite index of indicators (SOI), reflecting the risk of recession, rose to 0.1 points from 0.07 in April. The level of 0.18 is considered critical, and analysts expect further growth. Even a reduction in the key rate, according to experts, is no longer able to reverse negative trends.

• The Ministry of Economic Development named the critical dollar exchange rates for the Russian economy. Levels below 75 and above 110 rubles are considered undesirable. The exchange rate below 85 and above 100 is designated as a «medium risk» zone. The list of strategic threats to the economy also includes a key interest rate above 16%, as well as low prices for oil, gas, wheat and metal.