Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1593 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair decreased towards the target level of 1.1562.

In light of the escalating geopolitical situation and soaring energy prices, the European Central Bank is ready to take decisive action to curb potential inflation. This was stated by ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday. In her opinion, the central bank will act decisively and promptly if the current spike in energy costs triggers broader inflationary pressure. However, this did not provide significant support for the euro. Currently, according to Lagarde, the ECB continues to carefully analyze all possible consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, including its potential impact on the Eurozone economy. Special attention is given to assessing the extent to which current energy-sector price shocks may permeate a broader range of goods and services, thereby forming persistent inflation expectations.

Today's economic digest includes several reports unlikely to significantly impact financial markets. The first expected news is the release of the GfK consumer climate index for Germany. This indicator serves as a reliable gauge of consumer confidence in the country's economic situation, reflecting their expectations for the future, income levels, and willingness to make large purchases. Positive index values typically stimulate consumer activity and, consequently, economic growth, while negative signals may indicate an impending slowdown.

Simultaneously, data on private sector lending in the Eurozone will be published. This figure demonstrates the activity of businesses and households in attracting loans, which is critically important for investments and consumer spending. Active growth in lending usually indicates confidence among market participants and stable development.

To conclude the block of important reports, information on changes in the M3 money supply aggregate in the Eurozone is anticipated. This indicator is one of the key indicators of liquidity in the economy and may serve as a leading signal of inflation trends, as Lagarde mentioned just yesterday.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios:

Scenario #1: Today, buying euros can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1574 (green line on the chart), with the target for growth towards 1.1610. At point 1.1610, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect growth in the euro after very good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1551 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1574 and 1.1610.

Selling Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1551 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1515, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1574 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1551 and 1.1515.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.