Morning Brief: September 3

• On September 3, the reduced price cap on Russian oil came into force, prohibiting EU and British companies from transporting it. The ceiling on Russian oil prices, which prohibits EU companies from participating in its transportation and related services, has been reduced from $60 to $47.6 per barrel since September 3. This decision was made by the European Commission as part of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia. Switzerland and the United Kingdom have also joined these sanctions. Canada has stated its intention to join this measure.

• The Eastern Economic Forum has started today. The event will take place from September 3-6 in Vladivostok. The main theme of the WEF-2025 is «The Far East: cooperation for peace and Prosperity.» Representatives of more than 80 countries will take part in the Forum, and transactions worth trillions of rubles are expected (a preliminary estimate is 5.8 trillion rubles).

• Gold has updated its historical maximum again. Futures quotes for December delivery exceeded $3,600 per troy ounce. Experts predict that gold will reach a price of $3,740 per ounce by the end of the year amid a reduction in the Fed rate and increased demand from central banks for the precious metal. 

• About ten EU countries want to abolish the rule of unanimity to circumvent Hungary's veto on Ukraine's accession to the European Union. These countries want to change the EU rules so that only a balanced majority, rather than a full membership of 27 states, is required to start a new round of EU accession negotiations (the stage at which Kiev and Chisinau are currently at). Unanimity will still be necessary at the beginning and at the end of the process, but not at all the countless intermediate stages.

• The growth rate of the Russian economy will slow down in the next 3 years, according to the base forecast of the Bank of Russia. The long-term potential growth rate of Russian GDP in 2025-2028 will be in the range of 1.5-2.5%. This is less than in 2023-2024. In the baseline scenario, the Bank of Russia expects the key rate to average 12-13% in 2026.