The ECB is preparing for a pause: rate cuts may be postponed to December

The ECB may postpone the interest rate cut to December, leaving investors confident of continued easing. The survey showed that most experts expect a final reduction in the deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%, in September after a pause at the next meeting. 

However, some analysts believe that the ECB may refrain from acting for up to three meetings before confirming the achievement of a minimum interest rate. 

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank is ready to respond to the challenges of growth and inflation, but further steps remain uncertain. Council member Isabelle Schnabel considers the probability of a new decline low.

Economists note that the immediate decision to maintain rates will receive support, but opinions about the future differ: some see a pause, others – the end of the cycle. A quarter of respondents believe that the rate cut has been completed, half expect it in September, 21% – in December. The ECB's July rhetoric is expected to keep the possibility of further easing in the fall and winter.