China maintains stable A+ rating

The international agency S&P Global has confirmed China's long-term creditworthiness at the A+ level with short-term A-1 indicators. The forecast remains «stable». 

The stability of the economy is supported by the reduction of social and financial risks, which allows the country to avoid serious shocks. However, measures to compensate for the slowdown in the real estate sector and at the regional level may cause an increase in the budget deficit in the next 2-3 years.

China's economy is expected to return to growth of at least 4% per year. Real GDP grew by 4.3% in 2023, by 5% in 2024, by 4% in 2026, and by 4.3% in 2027-2028. The average annual GDP growth per capita in 2025-2028 will be 4-4.5%, reaching $16.1 thousand by the end of the period.

The unemployment rate will increase from 5.1% to 5.3% in 2023 and to 5.4% in 2026-2027, but will decrease to 5.3% in 2028. Inflation will remain zero in 2025, then rise to 0.1% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and reach 1.8% in 2028. The yuan exchange rate is expected to reach 7.3 yuan/$1 in 2023-2024, with a strengthening to 7.1 yuan per dollar in 2028.