Global economy: stability amid turbulence

In the first half of the year, the global economy faced political and trade turmoil, which caused short-term fluctuations in stock markets. However, the International Monetary Fund notes that global growth and inflation remain stable. 

In the revised forecast, the IMF raised its expectations for global economic growth to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is in line with the averages of the last decade. The exception was Japan, where the forecast for 2026 was slightly lowered.

Despite the fact that the direct consequences of the tariff war have been avoided, the continued level of duties at 17% will continue to put pressure on the economy. Pierre-Olivier Gurinka, Chief Economist at the IMF, emphasizes that the weakening of the dollar has improved financial conditions, but the growth prospects remain influenced by many factors. Among them are imports ahead of tariffs, fiscal incentives in Europe, tax breaks in the United States, and low energy prices.

The April shocks showed the vulnerability of the markets, but their recovery indicates that so far Donald Trump's trade policy has been relatively inexpensive for the global economy. Nevertheless, risks remain, and the IMF forecasts include the possibility of further deterioration.